Arsenal (@1.4) vs Aston Villa (@7.5)
23-09-2019

Our Prediction:

Arsenal will win

Arsenal – Aston Villa Match Prediction | 23-09-2019 11:30

Truth be told, if we consider the attack of Arsenal to be a productive attack - thats going to be down to the efforts of PEA. The man capable of anything, seemingly acting on the whim of divine and unseen input. If there is an edge to Arsenal, it is because Aubameyang is providing it. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang exists as the video game striker.

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They were stunned, with a 2:1 home loss to Bournemouth and have not recovered since. That was not a start they have wished for. Aston Villa will be fighting hard to avoid being relegated this season. They will be missing Chester and Kodjia in this game. Aston VIlla will try to surprise here and somehow avoid third defeat early in the season.

Arsenal is listed as a favorite here, as they should be. They have won against Eintracht Frankfurt 3:0 which is a perfect reminder for everyone of how good Arsenal can be. They only have 8 points from 5 games. Currently they are 7 points behind the league leaders, Liverpool. They are a strong team with many goal-scoring options and a solid tradition behind them. Besides that, their Premier League season didnt start well.

The Hornets swarmed, the box was overloaded, Cleverley scored, and Watford ruined Emerys plan - which had worked up until this point. Arsenal could still play it short, and didnt have to pass it within the box under a press, but they passed it within the box, limited the passing range for the defender and succumbed to pressure.

Prediction correct score: 1 - 2

This being the first game between these two teams in this season I had to focus on some other factors when crafting my selection. I focused on each teams form and recent results. They have more quality and talent than Aston Villa. The safest bet in this game will be on goals scored, that is my opinion after evaluating all the factors. Arsenal is a heavy favorite in this game.

Taking into account that Aston Villa have not been able to breach this foe in their last three trips here as well, by all means, count on Arsenal to open the scoring. Additionally, the away side have not been a threat in the final third are without a goal to their names in their last two games in a running.

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Emery must find his balance, because his structure - and his defenders - have been their own worst enemy. There is no reason, at all for Arsenal to be succumbing to that number of shots, because it will only take small moments of luck for teams to put away the Gunners. You cannot allow that amount of shots - and fail to organise a defensive structure - and expect to win games. You cannot claim to be defensive and suck up ninety-six shots. Villa should shoot often, because if there is a downfall to this Arsenal side, it will more than likely be wearing the red and white of the Gunners. Arsenal have faced more shots (96) than any team in the top five European Leagues and that stat, unlike Villa, is entirely their fault.

In the scatter graph above, produced by the excellent Experimental361, we can see that Aston Villa head the graph and fall into the competent but busy category when defensive effectiveness is highlighted. This shows that Aston Villa, more than most teams, are capable of absorbing shots. Villa are giving away around 18 shots a game, but are capable of accepting 15 before a goal is scored. A well-organised defence like Villas is able to restrict shooting space in the box and act on reflex, there is plenty of reason to have faith in that. Teams arent simply being wasteful against the Villa either - Tyrone Mings is the league leader in shots blocked per 90 minutes and Tom Heaton in goal is a superb shot-stopper.

Arsenal vs Aston Villa match preview: Can Villa grab three points?

Well focus on goal kicks here. Arsenal have enjoyed using short goal kicks since the relaxing of the goal kick rule. Since goalkeepers can now play the ball within the box, Arsenal have allowed Bernd Leno and his defenders to liberally restart play with a short goal kick regardless of opposition intent. With Arsenal 2-0 up and facing a high press, Leno and his defenders restarted play with a short goal-kick.

Theres no reason as to why not. Why not Villa? Arsenal havent started off in an impressive manner and we know that anything can happen in football. Again, Villa might fancy a point here (or more, if they are looking at the game tape of Arsenals last match against a Watford side who have just been clipped by Manchester City).