Justin Gaethje (@1.53) vs Donald Cerrone (@2.5)

Our Prediction:

Justin Gaethje will win

Justin Gaethje – Donald Cerrone Match Prediction | 15-09-2019 01:00

Defensively, Gaethje is actually fairly sound; while his approach leaves him in harms way fairly often, all of his opponents needed serious craft to land clean on his head through a high-guard that Gaethje uses as well as anyone (adjusting it as his opponent throws, countering out of it, and moving his head). All of that culminates in Gaethjes game with his opponent against the fence, which is where each of his last three wins ended; Gaethje can herd his opponent into one big shot, as he did to Vick and Barboza, but the Johnson performance was more characteristic of his punishing and relentless clinch-game against a tired foe. In the open, Gaethjes a very strong kicker, notably to the legs and on the counter, which often shortchanges his opponents combinations as it knocks them out of stance (as it did to Dustin Poirier numerous times), and theyre powerful enough to deal serious attritive damage extremely early in the fight.

A likely inhabitant of that spot is the winner in Vancouver on September 14, between top-5 contenders Justin Gaethje and Donald Cerrone; on one side, a fighter who seemed to find a ceiling on his extraordinarily violent style early in his UFC tenure only to shatter it and remain in the top 5 anyway, and on the other, one whos maintained absurd staying-power as a borderline-elite presence despite sustaining one-sided losses from time-to-time that would spell the end of that status for anyone else.

At UFC Fight Night - Ottawa 2019, he stepped out of the ring with a win via unanimous decision in round 5 when he faced Al Iaquinta. Cerrone sits at 2nd out of all the athletes in the division for significant strikes pointed at the body with 301 and 7th for significant strikes directed at the head with 525. Dillashaw by stoppage. In addition, Cerrone sits at 24th in the lightweight division and 105th among athletes in the UFC with a total of 16 takedowns. In the fight before that, Cerrone stepped out of the ring with a win in round 2 when he faced Alexander Hernandez at UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. In the matter of strike accuracy, he is connecting on 51.6% of the strikes he has thrown which has him sitting at 48th in the lightweight division and 269th among athletes in the UFC. Sitting at 77th out of all the athletes in the division and 352nd among athletes in the UFC, Cerrone finishes 27.1% of his takedown tries. With 1,154 significant strikes, he sits at 9th among athletes in the UFC and 2nd out of all the athletes in the division.

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Gaethje, set for Saturday, September 14th in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. The main card streams live on ESPN+ at 8 PM ET/5 PM PT, with prelims also on ESPN+ at 5 PM ET/2 PM PT. The main event is a five-round lightweight bout between highly entertaining contenders Justin Gaethje and Donald Cerrone. Check out Bloody Elbows pre-fight, fight night, and post-fight coverage for UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs.

Gaethje is averaging 8.50 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 55 percent. Gaethje can give and take a beating, and he loves coming forward with pressure, making his opponent uncomfortable and keeping them on their toes. Gaethje has shown throughout his career that the striking power and the chin is there for him to hold his own with anybody standing up, and he proved that even more in his last bout. Justin Gaethje enters this fight with a 20-2 record and has won 85 percent of his fights by knockout. At this point, Gaethje seems to be 100 percent dedicated to his standup and wants to head hunt. This will be Gaethjes first career fight outside of the United States. Gaethje has earned performance bonuses in all five of his UFC fights. It was a risky game plan, but its what we expect from Gaethje, and he showed just how powerful his hands are if he lands clean flesh. Gaethje is fresh off probably the biggest win of his career and the most impressive, as he stood in there with a dangerous strike in Barboza, ate the leg kicks and landed a nasty right hand that knocked the lights out. Gaethje has won 10 of his last 12 fights and is coming off a March win over Edson Barboza. However, Gaethje comes from a wrestling background and has a trainer who works relentlessly on technique, so at some point youd think that would come into play. Gaethje is averaging zero takedowns with an accuracy percentage of zero percent.

Cerrones game is well-known by now; he wants to keep the fight in the open where he can kick freely, and his strongest moments generally tend to come when hes able to chain his kicks off his unsound but often effective blitzes. Cerrone isnt a particularly deep kicker and definitely isnt a great boxer (with his game being jab sometimes and shift into blitzes other times), but his game is constructed fairly well to hide his weaknesses against most opponents. Cerrones most consistent work tends to be the sort of attrition with which he broke down Al Iaquinta, who he carved up with kicks to the legs and body on the outside that let him take over as the fight went on (although his signature has become the head-kick, which finished fighters as good as Matt Brown and Jim Miller). What got Cerrone his two recent wins at 155 was largely his intercepting knee, a feature he introduced to his game a few years ago as a response to being pressured a lot; Alexander Hernandez apparently tried to put Cerrone under pressure by just blitzing linearly over and over only to run into a knee nearly every time, and Iaquintas preference for using the takedown threat as a way to enter the pocket was shortchanged by the same tool.

A win over Gaethje would be one of the most impressive of his career. After a short but memorable campaign to the upper-end of the lightweight rankings, Donald Cerrone finds himself in a familiar position; having lost to an elite fighter at UFC 238, the legendary workhorse looks to bounce back by making a fairly quick turnaround to fight for the fourth time in 2019. Cowboy is getting older and his fights at this point are whether his opponents can find a way to exploit the well-defined weaknesses right below the surface, but Cerrones win over Al Iaquinta showed that hes (at least) still quite good and a challenge for most opponents who arent built in way that rips open his weaknesses.

Donald Cerrone vs. Justin Gaethje: Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

Where Darren Till and Rafael dos Anjos just pushed him back and smashed him, Leon Edwards and Jorge Masvidal solved his approach with relative ease (Masvidal with his careful distance-closing and jab, Edwards with his southpaw kicking and counterpunching game). That said, those weaknesses still exist, and he tends to lose catastrophically when his singular tool to manage the distance is successfully navigated. Cerrone is also one of the more defined momentum-fighters in MMA, for better or worse; his attack snowballs heavily and his opponents tend not to mount comebacks if it piles up, but his losses tend to be extremely lopsided beatings before Cerrone finds opportunities to do anything of effect (and a bad first round often portends a bad fight for him). Cerrone has a number of traits that define a problematic matchup, from southpaws to good body-hitters (where Cerrones body is historically quite fragile) to sound pressure-boxers, and he hasnt really shown an answer to any of those yet. Whether Justin Gaethje can exploit those tendencies is yet to be seen.

In regard to experience in the UFC, Gaethje has 4 fights which means he has less UFC experience, while Cerrone has compiled a total of 30 fights in the Octagon. In relation to reach, Gaethje measures 70.0" while Cerrone measures out at 73.0" meaning Gaethje is going to want to close the space so Donald Cerrone won't be able to use it to his advantage. Gaethje is the younger combatant in this fight at 30 years old while Cerrone is the older combatant in this fight at 36 years old. Justin Gaethje has the better eye for striking, landing 54.7% of his strikes which means Donald Cerrone will look to be on the watch for big shots. When it comes to overall mixed martial arts experience, Gaethje has 20 wins and 2 losses while Donald Cerrone is the owner of an overall fight record of 36 wins and 12 losses. When looking at this fight with Justin Gaethje and Donald Cerrone, you will want to know how these two fighters stack up to one another. In relation to physical attributes, let us start by taking a look at Justin Gaethje who is 5'11", while the opponent on the other side of the cage is 6'1".